I've blogged previously here about the 32 council areas of Scotland and their populations but this post is specifically about the total electorate for the Scottish Independence Referendum held on Thursday 18 September 2014. I've put this online as a reminder to myself (and others) of the number of people registered to vote nationally and in each area because the results will come in on a council-by-council basis through the early hours of 19 September. In total, there are 4,285,323 registered voters across Scotland (97% of those eligible). But where are they all? See the map below for details of this by clicking on an area - or click the link below the map to view a drop-down list of areas.
So, if you don't know your Clackmannanshire from your Angus, or your East Ayrshire from your East Dunbartonshire, this little map should help. Many people I know here in England are less than familiar with the exact location or attributes of Scottish local authorities - as are many people in Scotland - so this is really just a visual guide. The results are expected to emerge between 2am and 6am, so we'll be able to do our sums through the night! You can view the underlying data table here.
Another very interesting dimension to the referendum - apart from the outcome, the 'don't knows', the level of engagement and all sorts of other things - is the fact that 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to vote. The total numbers are not very high - 109,533 - but given the closeness of the polling this group in particular could have a decisive role to play. Highland Council have provided a breakdown of the figures across Scotland, ranging from a high of 10,864 in Glasgow to 460 in Orkney. But, how likely are people in each area to vote either Yes or No? Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia has a short blog post on this, which is worth reading - plus a nice graphic.
In total, 18% of registered voters were those intending to vote by post. This figure is pretty high and many people (my parents included) voted in this way before the Westminster machine came to life following the YouGov poll lead from last week.
Finally, one of the best things about the referendum is the fact that turnout is expected to be extremely high - perhaps in the region of 90%. When the results start coming in we'll have an idea of what kind of turnout we can expect and what the magic number is in terms of either Yes or No securing a majority. I've calculated this for turnout ranging from a high estimate of 95% to a low of 70%, as below. The second column shows how many votes would be cast under each level of turnout and the final column shows the '50% +1' figure that would secure a majority for either side.
Buckle up, etc.
Another very interesting dimension to the referendum - apart from the outcome, the 'don't knows', the level of engagement and all sorts of other things - is the fact that 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to vote. The total numbers are not very high - 109,533 - but given the closeness of the polling this group in particular could have a decisive role to play. Highland Council have provided a breakdown of the figures across Scotland, ranging from a high of 10,864 in Glasgow to 460 in Orkney. But, how likely are people in each area to vote either Yes or No? Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia has a short blog post on this, which is worth reading - plus a nice graphic.
In total, 18% of registered voters were those intending to vote by post. This figure is pretty high and many people (my parents included) voted in this way before the Westminster machine came to life following the YouGov poll lead from last week.
Finally, one of the best things about the referendum is the fact that turnout is expected to be extremely high - perhaps in the region of 90%. When the results start coming in we'll have an idea of what kind of turnout we can expect and what the magic number is in terms of either Yes or No securing a majority. I've calculated this for turnout ranging from a high estimate of 95% to a low of 70%, as below. The second column shows how many votes would be cast under each level of turnout and the final column shows the '50% +1' figure that would secure a majority for either side.
Buckle up, etc.
